AI-calculated strategy research on official daily TSP share-price history:
live transfer signals, year-by-year returns, and projections — all rules-compliant under the official 2-IFT monthly limit.
1
Current transfer signal
AI-calculated signal shows which fund the 3-month relative-strength rule points to now, with exact historical transfer dates.
2
Return + drawdown focus
AI-driven back-tests rank strategies for higher CAGR and lower max drawdown than buy-and-hold equity alone, inside TSP rules.
3
Full research suite
Projection calculator, analyzer, fund history, comparison, strategy rule, and TSP transfer rules reference.
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Tools-only membership lives here. Expert consultation is a separate higher tier on the Consultation page.
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Recommendations & live signal
Transfer date history
Strategy returns by year
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2-IFT compliant research
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Total gain: $147,036 · Compounded at 12.25% historical CAGR
Illustration only — not a forecast of future results.
Projected Growth Path
Relative Strength 3-mo (12.25%) Buy & Hold C (11.29%) Buy & Hold G (2.96%)
Historical CAGR by Strategy
TSP Projection Calculator
Estimate future balance based on your current balance, contributions, expected growth rate, and years until retirement.
Rates are editable — historical CAGRs are provided as optional presets only.
Today’s TSP balance
1 – 50 years
Employee + agency combined
Edit freely or use a preset below
Presets:
Projected at retirement
$—
Total contributions
$—
Growth (earnings)
$—
Starting balance
$—
Effective rate
—%
Years
—
Projected Balance Path
Total balance Contributions only (no growth)
Year
Start of year
Contributions
Growth
End of year
Note. This is a simplified projection assuming a constant annual return and end-of-month contributions.
Actual TSP returns vary year to year. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.
Analyzer Data Filters
Strategy Equity Curve
No records match the selected filters.
Fund History — No Strategy Assumptions
Pure historical monthly returns and share prices for the C, S, I, and G Funds.
No rotation, timing, or transfer rules applied — just the funds themselves.
YYYY-MM-DD
YYYY-MM-DD
Monthly Returns — All Funds
C Fund S Fund I Fund G Fund
No records for the selected year.
Final Value of $10,000
Maximum Drawdown
#
Strategy
CAGR
Final $10k
Max DD
Xfers/Yr
Notes
1
Relative Strength 3-mo (C/S/I)
12.25%
$147,036
–18.1%
4.8
Highest historical CAGR
2
Buy & Hold C Fund
11.29%
$98,082
–50.9%
0.0
Best zero-maintenance
3
Absolute Momentum 12-mo C
10.69%
$87,487
–19.6%
0.7
Simple trend filter
4
Relative Strength 3-mo (C/S)
10.65%
$86,754
–18.1%
4.0
US-only rotation
5
Buy & Hold S Fund
10.16%
$78,850
–52.2%
0.0
Small-cap buy & hold
6
12-mo SMA on C → G
10.07%
$77,546
–16.6%
1.1
Classic MA timing
7
Dual Momentum 12-mo
10.03%
$76,956
–23.4%
2.5
Academic dual-momentum
8
Buy & Hold I Fund
7.11%
$43,328
–57.2%
0.0
International
9
Sell in May
6.60%
$39,114
–21.7%
2.0
Seasonal
10
Buy & Hold G Fund
2.96%
$18,632
0.0%
0.0
Principal-protected
3-Month Relative Strength Rule
At each month-end, calculate the prior 3-month total return of the C Fund, S Fund, and I Fund.
Rank the three funds. If the highest-ranked fund has a positive 3-month return → allocate 100% to that fund for the next month.
Capital preservation (drawdown defense): If all three equity funds have zero or negative 3-month returns — a signal that markets are in a sustained pullback — transfer 100% into the G Fund. The G Fund does not lose principal; this is how the strategy cuts historical max drawdown to about –14% versus about –51% for buy-and-hold C.
When to leave G: At the next month-end where any of C, S, or I again shows a positive 3-month return, transfer 100% into that leading fund. Do not stay in G after momentum has turned up.
Submit any needed interfund transfer before 12:00 noon Eastern Time so it receives that day’s closing prices.
Produces at most one transfer per calendar month → fully inside the official TSP limit of two unrestricted IFTs per month.
Why G on weakness, not a tighter stop:
Extra portfolio drawdown stops (e.g. “sell everything at –5% or –10%”) were tested on this history.
They either never triggered beyond the existing –14% path, or they cut CAGR sharply by exiting too early and missing recoveries.
The 3-month all-negative → G rule is the capital-preservation switch that maximized return and limited drawdown under the 2-IFT constraint.
Official Interfund Transfer Rules
These are the operational limits that apply when moving money among G, F, C, S, I, and L funds.
Always confirm the latest wording on tsp.gov before acting.
Two unrestricted transfers per calendar month.
You may make two unrestricted interfund transfers (IFTs) each calendar month among any combination of the G, F, C, S, I, and L Funds.
After the second transfer — G Fund only.
Any additional transfers in the same calendar month may only move money into the G Fund. You cannot move from G into other funds until the next month.
Processing date is what counts.
The transfer counts against the month in which TSP processes it. Submit before 12:00 noon Eastern Time on a business day to receive that day’s closing prices and same-day processing in most cases.
The quota resets every month.
Your two unrestricted IFTs reset on the first calendar day of each new month. Unused transfers do not carry over.
Contribution allocation is separate.
Changing how future contributions are invested has no monthly limit and does not count as an interfund transfer.
This tool stays inside the limit.
Every strategy shown here uses at most one transfer per month, so you remain fully compliant with the two-IFT rule and keep a spare transfer if needed.
Quick reference
Unrestricted IFTs
2 / month
After 2nd IFT
G Fund only
Cutoff
12:00 noon ET
Contribution changes
Unlimited
How this maps to the strategy
At month-end, compute 3-month returns for C, S, and I and pick the leader (or G if all ≤ 0%).
If the recommended fund differs from what you hold, place one IFT before noon ET — that is your only strategy transfer for the month.
Optionally set future contribution allocation to the same fund (does not use an IFT).
Daily · Morning report
Stock market morning report
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S&P 500
—
…
Nasdaq
—
…
Dow
—
…
C Fund proxy
—
…
S Fund proxy
—
…
Preparing this morning’s market snapshot…
Morning snapshot for members. Index levels via public market data when available; otherwise the latest TSP research window on this site.
Not investment advice. Markets can gap overnight — confirm live prices before any transfer.
Member updates
News
Updates on strategy research, site tools, and membership. Check back for new notes as research is refreshed.
Membership + Consultation plan
Oct 2026
A combined $40/month Membership + Consultation option is available.
Initial consultation is free. Tools-only monthly remains $19/mo; annual tools-only is $149/yr.
Strategies tab on Member home
Oct 2026
Strategy research (projected transfers, calendars, and 2026 YTD) is available on the
Strategies tab inside membership — no separate strategies page.
Benefits calculator
Oct 2026
The public Benefits page includes an interactive growth calculator comparing G Fund (~4%),
money market (8%), and an illustrated TSP Maxing path (18%), plus an updated growth-of-$10,000 chart.
Research data window
Through Oct 2026
Strategy results remain based on official daily TSP share prices from June 2003 through early October 2026.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Membership · Strategy research
TSP Strategies
Strategy research on daily TSP share prices
(2003-06-02 → 2026-10-06). Day-of-month, seasonal, relative-strength, and trend rules under the 2-IFT limit.
See 2026 YTD, transfer calendar, Top 100 and
balanced picks.
—
2026 YTD
—
Ann. rate
—
Max DD
—
Transfers
Projected Transfers
AI-assisted schedule of upcoming interfund transfers for the selected strategy,
using the latest available TSP share prices and the strategy’s own rules.
Follows TSP limits: at most 2 unrestricted IFTs per calendar month,
submitted by 12:00 noon ET on a trading day.
Projections for momentum/trend rules are checkpoints (re-evaluate at month-end); the destination fund is TBD until new returns post.
Day-window rules produce fixed calendar dates. Not a guarantee — confirm signals and deadlines on
tsp.gov.
Strategy detail
Transfer dates (2026)
Select a strategy to see transfer dates.
Monthly holding path
IFT = transfer month · Hold = no change · TBD = future months
Data window: 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-06 (191 trading days). Submit IFTs by 12:00 noon ET on trading days.
Confirm on tsp.gov.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Research base: daily TSP share prices
All strategy results on this page are computed from the project daily price file
(TSP_Daily_Share_Prices.csv), not month-end samples alone.
Range: 2003-06-02 → 2026-10-06
Observations: 5,830 trading days (~23.35 years)
Funds: G, F, C, S, I
Constraint: prefer ≤ 2 interfund transfers per calendar month
Start value: $10,000 · no contributions · full-period CAGR & max drawdown
2026 year to date
2026 top 25 strategies (YTD)
Ranked by total return on daily TSP prices from
2026-01-02 through 2026-10-06
(191 trading days). Annualized column scales the partial year for comparison only.
#
Strategy
YTD return
Ann. rate*
Max DD
Family
1
I days 5–31 / else G
18.58%
25.2%
-6.7%
Day-of-month window
2
RS 4-month
18.46%
25.0%
-11.4%
Relative strength
3
RS 4-month → G
18.46%
25.0%
-11.4%
Relative strength
4
I days 3–31 / else G
17.91%
24.3%
-10.0%
Day-of-month window
5
S days 1–22 / else G
17.89%
24.2%
-7.3%
Day-of-month window
6
I days 5–31 / else F
17.65%
23.9%
-7.3%
Day-of-month window
7
I days 3–31 / else F
17.02%
23.0%
-10.4%
Day-of-month window
8
Buy & hold I
16.69%
22.6%
-11.4%
Buy & hold
9
I days 1–31 / else G
16.69%
22.6%
-11.4%
Day-of-month window
10
I days 1–31 / else F
16.69%
22.6%
-11.4%
Day-of-month window
11
RS 12-month
16.69%
22.6%
-11.4%
Relative strength
12
RS 12-month → G
16.69%
22.6%
-11.4%
Relative strength
13
S days 1–22 / else F
16.61%
22.5%
-7.4%
Day-of-month window
14
S days 1–25 / else G
16.00%
21.6%
-7.3%
Day-of-month window
15
I days 5–22 / else G
15.80%
21.3%
-6.3%
Day-of-month window
16
I days 5–25 / else G
15.78%
21.3%
-6.3%
Day-of-month window
17
RS 2-month
15.48%
20.9%
-11.4%
Relative strength
18
RS 6-month
15.26%
20.6%
-11.4%
Relative strength
19
RS 6-month → G
15.26%
20.6%
-11.4%
Relative strength
20
I days 7–31 / else G
15.25%
20.6%
-6.6%
Day-of-month window
21
I days 3–22 / else G
15.14%
20.4%
-9.6%
Day-of-month window
22
I days 3–25 / else G
15.12%
20.4%
-9.6%
Day-of-month window
23
Buy & hold C
14.98%
20.2%
-8.9%
Buy & hold
24
C days 1–31 / else G
14.98%
20.2%
-8.9%
Day-of-month window
25
C days 1–31 / else F
14.98%
20.2%
-8.9%
Day-of-month window
*Annualized from partial-year path — not a full-year guarantee. YTD leaders can change as the year continues. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Research method
Strategies are generated and ranked in the spirit of combinatorial / seasonal TSP research (e.g. tspcalc-style day schedules):
Day-of-month windows — hold an equity fund (C/S/I) on a fixed calendar-day range; otherwise G or F
Month-edge windows — equity only on first or last N trading days of each month
Seasonal maps — different day-window per calendar month (Jan–Dec), searched greedily and randomly
Relative strength — monthly rank of C/S/I by trailing return; optional move to G when all momentum ≤ 0
Trend filters — e.g. hold C vs G based on whether C’s trailing return is positive
Buy & hold baselines — G, F, C, S, I for comparison
In-sample seasonal maps can look very strong on the same history used to fit them. Prefer rules you can explain;
“2-IFT enforced” freezes the position after the second transfer in a month when a map would otherwise exceed the limit.
Research highlight · Balanced
Primary findings on this data
Seasonal day-windows (2-IFT enforced) — ~21.7% hist. CAGR, max DD ~−32% (fit to this history)
RS 3-month → G — ~12.2% hist. CAGR, max DD ~−18%, ~5 transfers/year — stronger risk-adjusted profile
Buy & hold C — ~11.5% hist. CAGR with deep drawdowns (~−55%)
Fixed single day-windows rarely beat long-only C by much on full-period CAGR once 2-IFT is respected
Published 30%+ full-period figures on other sites typically use denser day schedules and heavy historical fitting — treat with caution
In-sample seasonal month rules (for research only)
Month 1: S days 1–10, else F
Month 2: S days 1–15, else F
Month 3: I days 15–31, else G
Month 4: I days 1–31, else G
Month 5: S days 15–28, else F
Month 6: S days 1–10, else F
Month 7: C days 1–25, else F
Month 8: S days 7–31, else F
Month 9: S days 10–18, else G
Month 10: C days 10–31, else G
Month 11: S days 1–31, else G
Month 12: I days 1–31, else G
Top strategies by balanced score (return vs drawdown)
Ranks by historical CAGR with a penalty for deep drawdowns and for exceeding 2 IFTs/month.
#
Strategy
Hist. CAGR
Max DD
Xfers/yr
Family
1
Seasonal day-windows (2-IFT enforced)
21.65%
-31.6%
18.0
Seasonal calendar
2
Seasonal day-windows (in-sample)
24.28%
-30.3%
19.7
Seasonal calendar
3
RS 3-month → G
12.20%
-18.1%
4.8
Relative strength
4
Seasonal map 12.88%
12.88%
-30.8%
22.6
Seasonal calendar
5
Seasonal map 12.84%
12.84%
-31.3%
21.3
Seasonal calendar
6
RS 4-month → G
11.31%
-24.1%
4.3
Relative strength
7
Seasonal map 13.18%
13.18%
-37.4%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
8
Seasonal map 11.36%
11.36%
-26.2%
23.7
Seasonal calendar
9
Seasonal map 11.33%
11.33%
-26.3%
21.2
Seasonal calendar
10
C vs G trend 3mo
10.05%
-18.4%
2.2
Trend filter
Top 100 by historical CAGR (daily base)
Highest full-period compound rates on 2003-06-02 → 2026-10-06 daily prices.
Top rows include in-sample seasonal maps; lower rows include RS, trend, and fixed windows.
#
Strategy
Hist. CAGR
Max DD
Xfers/yr
Family
1
Seasonal day-windows (in-sample)
24.28%
-30.3%
19.7
Seasonal calendar
2
Seasonal day-windows (2-IFT enforced)
21.65%
-31.6%
18.0
Seasonal calendar
3
Seasonal map 13.18%
13.18%
-37.4%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
4
Seasonal map 12.92%
12.92%
-47.9%
21.9
Seasonal calendar
5
Seasonal map 12.88%
12.88%
-30.8%
22.6
Seasonal calendar
6
Seasonal map 12.84%
12.84%
-31.3%
21.3
Seasonal calendar
7
Seasonal map 12.53%
12.53%
-41.1%
22.7
Seasonal calendar
8
Seasonal map 12.43%
12.43%
-46.3%
23.6
Seasonal calendar
9
Seasonal map 12.33%
12.33%
-38.0%
21.9
Seasonal calendar
10
Seasonal map 12.27%
12.27%
-41.7%
23.6
Seasonal calendar
11
Seasonal map 12.26%
12.26%
-55.3%
22.7
Seasonal calendar
12
Seasonal map 12.25%
12.25%
-40.6%
23.8
Seasonal calendar
13
RS 3-month → G
12.20%
-18.1%
4.8
Relative strength
14
Seasonal map 12.07%
12.07%
-38.9%
18.2
Seasonal calendar
15
Seasonal map 11.93%
11.93%
-36.8%
22.4
Seasonal calendar
16
Seasonal map 11.92%
11.92%
-43.6%
19.1
Seasonal calendar
17
Seasonal map 11.91%
11.91%
-50.3%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
18
Seasonal map 11.83%
11.83%
-40.6%
22.7
Seasonal calendar
19
Seasonal map 11.80%
11.80%
-30.9%
23.0
Seasonal calendar
20
Seasonal map 11.78%
11.78%
-49.4%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
21
Seasonal map 11.77%
11.77%
-37.3%
24.0
Seasonal calendar
22
Seasonal map 11.68%
11.68%
-45.6%
22.5
Seasonal calendar
23
C days 1–18 / else F
11.66%
-52.8%
24.0
Day-of-month window
24
Seasonal map 11.63%
11.63%
-47.3%
22.0
Seasonal calendar
25
Seasonal map 11.61%
11.61%
-35.1%
22.9
Seasonal calendar
26
Seasonal map 11.60%
11.60%
-47.4%
22.1
Seasonal calendar
27
Seasonal map 11.49%
11.49%
-50.9%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
28
Seasonal map 11.48%
11.48%
-36.7%
23.1
Seasonal calendar
29
C days 1–28 / else F
11.47%
-55.4%
20.7
Day-of-month window
30
Buy & hold C
11.46%
-55.2%
0.0
Buy & hold
31
C days 1–31 / else G
11.46%
-55.2%
0.0
Day-of-month window
32
C days 1–31 / else F
11.46%
-55.2%
0.0
Day-of-month window
33
RS 1-month
11.36%
-54.7%
7.8
Relative strength
34
Seasonal map 11.36%
11.36%
-26.2%
23.7
Seasonal calendar
35
Seasonal map 11.33%
11.33%
-26.3%
21.2
Seasonal calendar
36
Seasonal map 11.32%
11.32%
-49.1%
22.4
Seasonal calendar
37
RS 4-month → G
11.31%
-24.1%
4.3
Relative strength
38
RS 3-month
11.27%
-59.1%
4.2
Relative strength
39
Seasonal map 11.24%
11.24%
-41.4%
23.6
Seasonal calendar
40
Seasonal map 11.15%
11.15%
-44.9%
23.8
Seasonal calendar
41
Seasonal map 11.14%
11.14%
-31.9%
22.8
Seasonal calendar
42
Seasonal map 11.12%
11.12%
-31.9%
23.6
Seasonal calendar
43
Seasonal map 11.10%
11.10%
-27.3%
21.8
Seasonal calendar
44
Seasonal map 11.09%
11.09%
-44.9%
22.7
Seasonal calendar
45
Seasonal map 11.07%
11.07%
-41.5%
22.9
Seasonal calendar
46
Seasonal map 11.06%
11.06%
-33.8%
23.0
Seasonal calendar
47
Seasonal map 11.05%
11.05%
-36.1%
21.5
Seasonal calendar
48
Seasonal map 11.04%
11.04%
-48.6%
23.0
Seasonal calendar
49
Seasonal map 11.02%
11.02%
-40.0%
22.4
Seasonal calendar
50
Seasonal map 11.01%
11.01%
-42.9%
23.1
Seasonal calendar
51
Buy & hold S
11.00%
-57.4%
0.0
Buy & hold
52
S days 1–31 / else G
11.00%
-57.4%
0.0
Day-of-month window
53
S days 1–31 / else F
11.00%
-57.4%
0.0
Day-of-month window
54
C vs G trend 12mo
10.91%
-33.8%
0.6
Trend filter
55
RS 12-month
10.77%
-58.6%
2.1
Relative strength
56
RS 6-month
10.70%
-58.2%
2.5
Relative strength
57
C days 1–28 / else G
10.65%
-55.1%
20.7
Day-of-month window
58
RS 4-month
10.60%
-59.0%
3.9
Relative strength
59
RS 12-month → G
10.50%
-33.8%
2.3
Relative strength
60
C days 1–18 / else G
10.34%
-52.5%
24.0
Day-of-month window
61
C days 1–25 / else F
10.29%
-59.4%
24.0
Day-of-month window
62
RS 2-month
10.11%
-59.3%
6.0
Relative strength
63
C vs G trend 3mo
10.05%
-18.4%
2.2
Trend filter
64
S days 10–31 / else G
9.89%
-34.8%
24.0
Day-of-month window
65
C days 1–15 / else F
9.82%
-54.9%
24.0
Day-of-month window
66
S days 1–28 / else F
9.81%
-61.7%
20.7
Day-of-month window
67
RS 1-month → G
9.58%
-29.4%
8.6
Relative strength
68
C/F edge-10TD
9.40%
-55.7%
24.0
Month-edge window
69
C days 1–20 / else F
9.20%
-60.7%
24.0
Day-of-month window
70
C vs G trend 6mo
9.14%
-33.8%
1.4
Trend filter
71
S/G edge-5TD
9.02%
-17.0%
23.9
Month-edge window
72
S days 1–28 / else G
9.01%
-61.4%
20.7
Day-of-month window
73
C days 3–31 / else G
8.99%
-49.8%
19.7
Day-of-month window
74
RS 6-month → G
8.98%
-34.3%
3.1
Relative strength
75
C days 1–25 / else G
8.91%
-59.9%
24.0
Day-of-month window
76
S days 15–31 / else G
8.91%
-31.6%
24.0
Day-of-month window
77
C days 3–18 / else F
8.87%
-45.0%
24.0
Day-of-month window
78
S days 7–31 / else G
8.84%
-41.4%
24.0
Day-of-month window
79
C days 3–31 / else F
8.68%
-48.2%
19.7
Day-of-month window
80
S days 10–31 / else F
8.62%
-41.0%
24.0
Day-of-month window
81
S days 3–31 / else G
8.58%
-53.5%
19.7
Day-of-month window
82
S days 5–31 / else G
8.57%
-46.3%
24.0
Day-of-month window
83
S days 1–18 / else F
8.48%
-56.9%
24.0
Day-of-month window
84
S days 5–31 / else F
8.43%
-44.6%
24.0
Day-of-month window
85
C days 5–18 / else F
8.40%
-41.7%
24.0
Day-of-month window
86
C days 1–15 / else G
8.40%
-55.4%
24.0
Day-of-month window
87
C vs G trend 1mo
8.38%
-26.2%
4.8
Trend filter
88
C days 5–31 / else G
8.34%
-47.0%
24.0
Day-of-month window
89
Buy & hold I
8.30%
-60.9%
0.0
Buy & hold
90
I days 1–31 / else G
8.30%
-60.9%
0.0
Day-of-month window
91
I days 1–31 / else F
8.30%
-60.9%
0.0
Day-of-month window
92
S days 3–31 / else F
8.27%
-52.5%
19.7
Day-of-month window
93
C/F edge-7TD
8.22%
-48.2%
24.0
Month-edge window
94
C days 5–31 / else F
8.20%
-45.3%
24.0
Day-of-month window
95
C days 1–10 / else F
8.07%
-43.8%
24.0
Day-of-month window
96
I days 1–28 / else F
8.06%
-61.4%
20.7
Day-of-month window
97
RS 2-month → G
8.01%
-34.1%
6.4
Relative strength
98
S days 1–25 / else F
8.00%
-65.2%
24.0
Day-of-month window
99
S days 7–31 / else F
8.00%
-40.5%
24.0
Day-of-month window
100
C days 10–31 / else G
7.99%
-29.7%
24.0
Day-of-month window
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice. Confirm all transfers on tsp.gov.
Flagship · Recommended
3-month relative strength → G Fund defense
Each month-end, rank the C, S, and I funds by trailing 3-month total return.
Hold the leader at 100% if its 3-month return is positive. If all three are ≤ 0%, move to the
G Fund to help preserve capital until equity momentum returns.
Why this is the primary playbook
Highest historical CAGR among rules-compliant strategies we tested (~11.9%)
Much shallower max drawdown than buy-and-hold C (~−14% vs ~−51%)
Typically about one transfer per month — stays inside the 2-IFT limit
Clear, mechanical rule — no day trading and no discretionary “guessing”
01
Rank C / S / I
Use month-end share prices; compute 3-month returns.
02
Pick the leader
Highest 3-month return among the three equity funds.
03
Hold or go to G
Leader > 0% → hold it. All ≤ 0% → 100% G Fund.
04
Transfer if needed
One IFT when the target fund changes; before noon ET.
Historical comparison (illustrative)
Back-tested on official TSP share-price history. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Strategy
Hist. CAGR
Max drawdown
Transfers / yr
Notes
RS 3-mo → G (flagship)
~11.9%
−13.9%
~4.8
Primary membership recommendation
Buy & hold C Fund
~11.3%
−50.9%
0
Strong growth, deep drawdowns
Buy & hold S Fund
~10.4%
−52.2%
0
Small/mid-cap tilt
Buy & hold I Fund
~7.1%
~−50%+
0
International equity
Buy & hold G Fund
~3.0%
0.0%
0
Principal stability, low growth
Exact figures depend on the data window and methodology. Use the member Recommendations and Comparison tools for the live AI-calculated series.
Other approaches (research)
Buy and hold C
Simple equity exposure. Competitive long-run return historically, but large peak-to-trough declines in bear markets.
Relative strength without G
Always stay in the leading equity fund. Can keep equity risk on when all momentum is negative — higher path volatility.
G Fund only
Maximum stability. Useful as a temporary defense, not as a long-term growth engine for most long-horizon members.
TSP rules that matter
2 unrestricted IFTs per calendar month
After that, only transfers into G Fund until next month
Submit by 12:00 noon ET for same-day processing when markets are open
Contribution allocations are separate from interfund transfers
Always confirm current rules, cutoffs, and share prices on tsp.gov.
How to use this in the member app
Recommendations — current signal, ranking, transfer dates, year returns
Comparison — side-by-side strategy metrics
Strategy Rule — step-by-step definition of the flagship rule
Projection — map contributions and assumed rates toward long-term goals
Goal: maximize historical returns while reducing drawdowns, inside the 2-IFT monthly limit.
The 3-month relative-strength rule (C/S/I, G when all equity momentum is negative) was the best balance of those two objectives in this history.
Use the filters for exact transfer dates and year-by-year strategy returns.
Strategy total return by year
Compound return of the relative-strength strategy portfolio for each calendar year (from month-end values).
Select a year above to highlight it, or view all years below.
Year
Start value
End value
Strategy return
Transfers
Vs C Fund
Exact transfer dates & strategy return by year
Transfer dates are when the strategy moved money (From → To).
Strategy total return is the compound return of the full portfolio for that calendar year — not a single fund.
Use the Year filter above to isolate one year.
Year
Strategy return
Transfers
Transfer dates
Path (from → to)
No data match the selected filters.
Transfer detail for selected scope
#
Date
From
To
Why (strategy signal)
Current ranking · when to be in each fund
Rank
Fund
3-mo return
Action
Multiple recommendations
How to act on a date
On or just after month-end, compute 3-month returns for C, S, and I (or use this page’s latest signal).
If the recommended fund differs from what you hold, log in to tsp.gov and submit an IFT before 12:00 noon Eastern.
Move 100% of the strategy balance into the recommended fund.
Do this at most once per calendar month to stay inside the two-IFT limit.
Disclaimer. Historical results only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The 12.25% CAGR is the highest compound annual growth rate observed among tested strategies that obey the TSP two-transfer-per-month rule
over the available share-price history. Market conditions change. Always verify current rules and prices on tsp.gov.
This is not investment, tax, or legal advice.
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